Monday, January 09, 2006

Libs looking DOOMED

This is interesting. EKOS has done a poll, the results of which they won't release, because the "données sont si surprenantes qu'il serait irresponsable de les dévoiler à un moment aussi critique que l'aube du débat." They are apparently going to repeat the poll.

Even more fascinating,

Ce week-end, un sondage CPAC-SES Research révélait déjà que 23% des Québécois préféreraient avoir le chef conservateur Stephen Harper comme premier ministre, alors que seulement 13% d'entre eux pensaient la même chose avant Noël. Le libéral Paul Martin et le bloquiste Gilles Duceppe récoltent pour leur part 18% et 17% d'appuis, ce qui représente une dégringolade.

The election suddenly got interesting. More people in Quebec want Harper to be PM than want either Martin or Duceppe (presumably Duceppe's number is so low because they know he never will be PM). This, for a man whose party has been virtually invisible in Quebec since the '93 election.

Let's hope, however, this new Tory momentum isn't going to carry forward to a majority, because that would just be scary. Fun questions:

1. Do Ontarians now panic at the thought of a Tory majority and go firmly Red?

2. Do wavering Liberals, now convinced they won't form a government, flock to the NDP, figuring it's their best bet?

3. Do the Liberals, not having bothered with something as trivial as a policy, go on the warpath, noting that their own electoral collapse is clearly going to doom the country to Right Wing Lunacy?

4. Does the new resurgence of the Tories in Quebec signal a split of the Federalist vote, helping the Bloc, or does it mean that many soft nationalists who were disgusted by the Liberals (rather than separatist traitors) switch to the Tories, helping the federalist cause in Quebec?


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